Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 48.1%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 78.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.3%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 54.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
47.6% (231)
+4.1%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
83.3% (12)
-83.3%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
33.3% (21)
+8.3%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +83.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Dowd shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
48.6% (451)
51.2% (164)
Away
49.5% (416)
43.0% (100)
By Period
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
49.1%
50.0%
P2
47.3%
46.2%
P3
51.4%
49.5%
OT
30.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |