Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.7% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 87.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 66.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 54.0%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 6: Dowd 4-2 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
2
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
50.3% (479)
+1.9%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
50.0% (28)
+10.0%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
30.0% (50)
+14.0%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Dowd shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (173).
Home / Away
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
51.5% (619)
48.9% (270)
Away
48.1% (576)
48.1% (287)
By Period
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
51.7%
48.7%
P2
51.6%
50.0%
P3
47.0%
47.3%
OT
22.2%
36.4%
Final 5 min
48.1%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:43 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:48 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 17:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 13:28 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |