Nic Dowd vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Nugent-Hopkins leads 12-12 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 95.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 75.5%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 61.1%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
12
(24 meetings)
12
12
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Dowd 7-3 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
2
4
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
8
5
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
2
3
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
44.9% (8,756)
+7.5%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
50.7% (839)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
37.9% (879)
+6.2%
On even strength, Dowd has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Dowd shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,645).
Home / Away
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
51.9% (3,897)
46.5% (5,350)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
42.9% (5,136)
By Period
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
51.7%
45.1%
P2
50.4%
43.9%
P3
50.3%
45.3%
OT
45.9%
43.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:43 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:48 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 17:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 13:28 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 04:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 2 | 15:45 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 1 | 15:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 1 | 14:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 1 | 10:40 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 16:51 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 11:07 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 2 | 11:35 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 2 | 09:30 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 3 | 10:55 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 05:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |