Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dowd wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.1% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.3% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Nugent-Hopkins leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Dowd 51.0%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 62.0%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 56.7%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Dowd 3-7 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
2
4
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
3
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (608)
45.0% (1,011)
+2.2%
Power Play
53.1% (96)
46.7% (135)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
31.1% (122)
-31.1%
On penalty kill, Nugent-Hopkins has a +31.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Dowd is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (483).
Dowd shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (489).
Home / Away
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
48.7% (384)
43.8% (625)
Away
46.7% (323)
43.9% (643)
By Period
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
50.2%
47.8%
P2
47.5%
39.5%
P3
46.2%
44.2%
OT
40.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
48.4%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
47.8%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
43.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 16:51 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 11:07 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 2 | 11:35 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 2 | 09:30 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 3 | 10:55 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 05:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 02:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 1 | 05:38 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |