Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.5% vs Wright 40.3% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 62.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 94.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 76.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Dowd
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Dowd
Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Wright
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (485)
37.2% (344)
+16.2%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
43.9% (41)
-43.9%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (186)
0.0% (1)
+39.8%
On power play, Wright has a +43.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Dowd is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (245).
Dowd shoots right. Wright is 37.0% vs right-shot opponents (92).
Home / Away
Dowd
Wright
Home
48.5% (307)
37.0% (211)
Away
50.3% (366)
38.9% (175)
By Period
Dowd
Wright
P1
50.7%
37.5%
P2
49.1%
38.4%
P3
49.6%
38.1%
OT
30.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.5%
37.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Wright
34.0%▼
36.5%
37.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 08:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 07:54 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |