Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Wright 41.4% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 67.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 93.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 75.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Dowd
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Dowd
Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Wright
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
39.5% (453)
+12.2%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
42.4% (59)
-42.4%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
0.0% (1)
+41.6%
On power play, Wright has a +42.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Dowd shoots right. Wright is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Home / Away
Dowd
Wright
Home
48.6% (451)
39.5% (286)
Away
49.5% (416)
40.1% (227)
By Period
Dowd
Wright
P1
49.1%
39.9%
P2
47.3%
37.1%
P3
51.4%
42.9%
OT
30.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 08:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 07:54 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |