Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Wright 43.3% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 71.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 93.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 90.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Dowd
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
Dowd
Wright
Last 9: Dowd 8-1 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
1
Dowd
Wright
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
0
Dowd
Wright
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
42.6% (1,318)
+9.8%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
45.8% (131)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
33.3% (6)
+10.8%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Dowd shoots right. Wright is 44.1% vs right-shot opponents (383).
Home / Away
Dowd
Wright
Home
51.9% (3,897)
44.2% (746)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
41.5% (709)
By Period
Dowd
Wright
P1
51.7%
44.4%
P2
50.4%
40.7%
P3
50.3%
44.0%
OT
45.9%
20.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 08:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 07:54 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:40 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 12:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:28 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 01:38 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:47 | Offensive | Shane Wright |