Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Kozak 47.8% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kozak 81.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 72.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 66.8%
Result
Tyson Kozak favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Dowd
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Dowd
Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Kozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Kozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
46.0% (137)
+6.2%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
66.7% (3)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
40.0% (5)
+4.0%
On power play, Kozak has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Dowd shoots right. Kozak is 40.3% vs right-shot opponents (62).
Home / Away
Dowd
Kozak
Home
51.5% (619)
51.2% (84)
Away
48.1% (576)
39.3% (61)
By Period
Dowd
Kozak
P1
51.7%
57.1%
P2
51.6%
34.7%
P3
47.0%
48.1%
Final 5 min
48.1%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 05:23 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |