Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.8% vs 47.4%). Look for Rossi on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Rossi wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 47.1% vs Bjugstad 47.9% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rossi 62.1%
Defensive zone
Rossi 51.7%
Neutral zone
Rossi 64.9%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Rossi
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
Rossi
Bjugstad
Last 9: Rossi 8-1 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
2
0
Rossi
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
1
0
Rossi
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rossi
5
1
Rossi
Bjugstad
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (879)
46.7% (398)
-0.2%
Power Play
48.6% (105)
51.6% (31)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
62.5% (8)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Rossi is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Rossi shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Rossi
Bjugstad
Home
47.5% (520)
47.3% (220)
Away
46.0% (472)
47.5% (217)
By Period
Rossi
Bjugstad
P1
47.8%
46.1%
P2
44.2%
46.3%
P3
48.7%
50.4%
Final 5 min
47.6%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
46.8%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 10:56 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 11:20 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:51 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:13 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:08 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |