Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 48.2%). Look for Bjugstad on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.0% vs Kozak 48.6% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 61.1%
Defensive zone
Kozak 61.2%
Neutral zone
Kozak 54.3%
Result
Tyson Kozak favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Bjugstad
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Bjugstad
Kozak
Last 6: Bjugstad 4-2 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Kozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
3
2
Bjugstad
Kozak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,566)
48.2% (382)
+0.4%
Power Play
55.2% (828)
57.1% (7)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (612)
46.9% (32)
-2.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,695).
Bjugstad shoots right. Kozak is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (137).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Kozak
Home
50.0% (3,981)
47.2% (216)
Away
48.0% (4,025)
49.3% (205)
By Period
Bjugstad
Kozak
P1
49.1%
55.1%
P2
49.0%
43.7%
P3
48.4%
46.2%
Final 5 min
47.2%
43.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
44.0%▼
49.0%
49.0%
Kozak
54.0%▲
50.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 03:08 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 03:42 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:48 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 02:42 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |