Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Bonino 51.2% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 50.7%
Defensive zone
Bonino 51.5%
Neutral zone
Bonino 56.4%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Stepan
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Stepan
Bonino
Last 5: Stepan 2-3 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Bonino
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Stepan
Bonino
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Stepan
Bonino
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
51.7% (777)
+2.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
60.0% (50)
-60.0%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
43.9% (98)
+20.8%
On power play, Bonino has a +60.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Bonino is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bonino
Home
54.5% (222)
48.2% (461)
Away
57.2% (222)
54.5% (464)
By Period
Stepan
Bonino
P1
57.5%
54.1%
P2
54.7%
49.7%
P3
55.9%
50.7%
Final 5 min
57.5%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 11:49 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 05:42 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 3 | 02:28 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 1 | 12:07 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 1 | 08:26 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |