Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bonino on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Bonino 51.2% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 56.1%
Defensive zone
Bonino 89.7%
Neutral zone
Bonino 77.3%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 78.3%
21.7%
78.3%
Tavares
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Tavares
Bonino
Last 7: Tavares 1-6 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Bonino
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
4
Tavares
Bonino
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Tavares
Bonino
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
51.7% (777)
+9.2%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
60.0% (50)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
43.9% (98)
+3.7%
On even strength, Tavares has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. Bonino is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (629).
Home / Away
Tavares
Bonino
Home
63.5% (684)
48.2% (461)
Away
57.6% (658)
54.5% (464)
By Period
Tavares
Bonino
P1
60.3%
54.1%
P2
60.4%
49.7%
P3
60.1%
50.7%
OT
92.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 11:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 05:16 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 18:42 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 05:02 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 09:21 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |