Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bonino 50.0% vs Sturm 56.2% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Bonino 73.1%
Defensive zone
Bonino 74.1%
Neutral zone
Bonino 74.1%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Bonino
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Bonino
Sturm
Last 10: Bonino 3-7 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
4
Bonino
Sturm
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bonino
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Bonino
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bonino
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (8,315)
57.1% (2,681)
-6.5%
Power Play
54.1% (972)
61.3% (62)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (1,693)
51.7% (482)
-7.1%
On power play, Sturm has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Bonino is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (6,917).
Bonino shoots left. Sturm is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,159).
Home / Away
Bonino
Sturm
Home
51.2% (5,507)
57.3% (1,595)
Away
48.8% (5,480)
55.5% (1,630)
By Period
Bonino
Sturm
P1
50.6%
56.4%
P2
48.5%
55.1%
P3
51.1%
57.6%
OT
45.7%
60.6%
Final 5 min
50.6%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
50.0%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 13:46 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 07:39 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:19 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 01:23 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 3 | 14:17 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 2 | 05:25 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |