Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bonino wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bonino 48.5% vs Aho 51.2% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 73.7%
Defensive zone
Bonino 71.9%
Neutral zone
Bonino 50.3%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 62.3%
37.7%
62.3%
Bonino
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Bonino
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
Bonino
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
1
0
Bonino
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bonino
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (324)
48.5% (778)
-0.4%
Power Play
57.9% (38)
63.4% (191)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (88)
50.8% (65)
-6.5%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Bonino is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Bonino shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Bonino
Aho
Home
52.0% (244)
51.3% (530)
Away
43.7% (206)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Bonino
Aho
P1
48.0%
50.0%
P2
42.9%
51.3%
P3
53.9%
52.1%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.4%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
48.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2 | 13:32 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 1 | 12:34 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 1 | 09:38 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |