Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.4% vs 51.0%). Look for Bonino on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bonino wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bonino 51.2% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 67.0%
Defensive zone
Bonino 67.7%
Neutral zone
Bonino 54.3%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Bonino
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Bonino
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Bonino
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
2
1
Bonino
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bonino
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (777)
49.3% (789)
+2.4%
Power Play
60.0% (50)
56.9% (181)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (98)
54.1% (98)
-10.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Bonino is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Bonino shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
Bonino
Stamkos
Home
48.2% (461)
52.0% (512)
Away
54.5% (464)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Bonino
Stamkos
P1
54.1%
42.1%
P2
49.7%
56.4%
P3
50.7%
53.7%
OT
40.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
50.6%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 10:55 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 10:21 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |