Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Foligno wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 49.8% vs Thomas 51.7% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 65.5%
Defensive zone
Foligno 55.1%
Neutral zone
Thomas 60.6%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Foligno
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Foligno
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (261)
50.1% (615)
-1.1%
Power Play
57.1% (42)
62.2% (98)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (51)
52.6% (114)
-5.5%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Foligno is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Foligno shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Foligno
Thomas
Home
48.9% (178)
51.9% (374)
Away
50.6% (176)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Foligno
Thomas
P1
40.4%
49.2%
P2
55.8%
55.3%
P3
51.2%
50.6%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
53.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 13:49 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 05:45 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |