Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.7% vs Paul 51.7% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 73.7%
Defensive zone
Paul 51.0%
Neutral zone
Spezza 67.1%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Spezza
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Spezza
Paul
Last 9: Spezza 7-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
1
Spezza
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (292)
56.2% (274)
+1.7%
Power Play
62.3% (53)
52.9% (17)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (138)
43.4% (129)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Spezza is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (347).
Spezza shoots right. Paul is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (137).
Home / Away
Spezza
Paul
Home
58.4% (238)
52.3% (235)
Away
55.5% (245)
51.9% (185)
By Period
Spezza
Paul
P1
59.2%
53.2%
P2
54.8%
53.8%
P3
57.4%
49.3%
Final 5 min
51.5%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 09:07 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 14:34 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 19:15 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 10:02 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 3 | 14:55 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 19:47 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |