Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 45.3% vs Paul 53.9% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rossi 70.2%
Defensive zone
Rossi 73.7%
Neutral zone
Rossi 66.1%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Rossi
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Rossi
Paul
Last 6: Rossi 1-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Rossi
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Rossi
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
44.5% (701)
53.1% (710)
-8.6%
Power Play
56.1% (41)
57.3% (199)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
58.0% (69)
-58.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +58.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Rossi is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (468).
Rossi shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Rossi
Paul
Home
46.8% (385)
56.0% (466)
Away
42.6% (364)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Rossi
Paul
P1
42.8%
57.2%
P2
43.9%
54.9%
P3
47.4%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
37.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
44.7%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 10:11 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 00:28 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 13:30 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 01:25 | Offensive | Nick Paul |