Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Rossi on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Rossi wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 47.1% vs Paul 50.0% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rossi 54.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 67.0%
Neutral zone
Paul 56.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Rossi
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Rossi
Paul
Last 9: Rossi 6-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
4
0
Rossi
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Rossi
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Rossi
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (879)
48.8% (666)
-2.3%
Power Play
48.6% (105)
53.8% (65)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
60.0% (55)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Rossi is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
Rossi shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
Rossi
Paul
Home
47.5% (520)
49.7% (348)
Away
46.0% (472)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Rossi
Paul
P1
47.8%
51.0%
P2
44.2%
47.4%
P3
48.7%
51.5%
OT
45.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
46.8%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 06:23 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2 | 06:19 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 12:17 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 07:19 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 03:41 | Defensive | Nick Paul |