Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Johansen 53.3% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 66.7%
Defensive zone
Paul 61.0%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.2%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Paul
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
13
(23 meetings)
10
13
Paul
Johansen
Last 10: Paul 4-6 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
3
6
Paul
Johansen
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
4
Paul
Johansen
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
5
3
Paul
Johansen
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,796)
53.1% (11,017)
-0.6%
Power Play
56.5% (480)
56.2% (2,163)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (574)
50.5% (978)
-3.8%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,780).
Paul shoots left. Johansen is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (9,788).
Home / Away
Paul
Johansen
Home
52.7% (2,412)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Paul
Johansen
P1
53.9%
53.2%
P2
51.0%
53.9%
P3
52.0%
52.8%
OT
50.0%
58.2%
Final 5 min
51.4%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 12:11 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 14:40 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 01:48 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 10:17 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 16:47 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 05:12 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 1 | 19:13 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 1 | 15:54 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 15:36 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 3 | 01:34 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 17:26 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 08:45 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 06:01 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |