Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.4% vs Johansen 52.4% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 81.8%
Defensive zone
Paul 67.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 52.6%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 65.0%
35.0%
65.0%
Paul
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Paul
Johansen
Last 5: Paul 4-1 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Johansen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (644)
49.4% (1,010)
+3.6%
Power Play
37.5% (24)
62.3% (236)
-24.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (177)
67.2% (67)
-24.3%
On power play, Johansen has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Paul is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Paul shoots left. Johansen is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (950).
Home / Away
Paul
Johansen
Home
52.5% (516)
54.7% (655)
Away
47.1% (329)
50.6% (658)
By Period
Paul
Johansen
P1
47.6%
52.2%
P2
48.4%
50.7%
P3
54.5%
54.8%
OT
100.0%
53.6%
Final 5 min
49.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2022 | 3 | 01:34 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 17:26 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 08:45 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 06:01 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 02:59 | Offensive | Nick Paul |