Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.9% vs Johansen 52.8% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 56.0%
Defensive zone
Johansen 56.9%
Neutral zone
Johansen 50.6%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Paul
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Paul
Johansen
Last 6: Paul 3-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
3
Paul
Johansen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
0
Paul
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (710)
51.9% (597)
+1.2%
Power Play
57.3% (199)
57.9% (133)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (69)
54.3% (81)
+3.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Paul is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (355).
Paul shoots left. Johansen is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (584).
Home / Away
Paul
Johansen
Home
56.0% (466)
55.8% (387)
Away
52.7% (512)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Paul
Johansen
P1
57.2%
50.0%
P2
54.9%
56.2%
P3
51.5%
52.6%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 12:11 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 14:40 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 01:48 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 10:17 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Nick Paul |