Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Schmaltz wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 44.1% vs Stastny 54.4% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 78.1%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 80.4%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 74.3%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
Schmaltz
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Schmaltz
Stastny
Last 7: Schmaltz 1-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Stastny
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
3
Schmaltz
Stastny
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Schmaltz
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (338)
53.6% (859)
-11.9%
Power Play
47.1% (34)
59.9% (202)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (4)
55.1% (78)
+19.9%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Schmaltz is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (274).
Schmaltz shoots right. Stastny is 57.0% vs right-shot opponents (412).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Stastny
Home
48.2% (166)
56.9% (596)
Away
38.1% (210)
52.5% (543)
By Period
Schmaltz
Stastny
P1
42.1%
53.9%
P2
45.8%
56.2%
P3
41.4%
54.4%
OT
22.2%
53.8%
Final 5 min
43.9%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.6%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 19:21 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 1 | 06:03 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 13:44 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 11:39 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 11:16 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |