Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 42.5% vs Stastny 55.1% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 21-6 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 87.6%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 90.3%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 95.7%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 91.9%
91.9%
8.1%
Schmaltz
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
21
(27 meetings)
6
21
Schmaltz
Stastny
Last 10: Schmaltz 3-7 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Schmaltz
Stastny
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
9
Schmaltz
Stastny
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
9
Schmaltz
Stastny
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
41.2% (3,399)
54.6% (10,616)
-13.4%
Power Play
47.1% (649)
59.1% (1,994)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (134)
52.9% (1,119)
-5.1%
On even strength, Stastny has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,015).
Schmaltz shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Stastny
Home
42.7% (2,089)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
41.9% (2,093)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Schmaltz
Stastny
P1
41.1%
56.3%
P2
42.9%
55.4%
P3
43.0%
53.5%
OT
42.4%
62.9%
Final 5 min
42.2%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 19:21 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 1 | 06:03 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 13:44 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 11:39 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 11:16 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 30, 2018 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 14:03 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 13:57 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 00:34 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 2 | 18:10 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 2 | 09:44 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 3 | 13:24 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 1 | 18:20 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 1 | 06:38 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 18, 2017 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 18, 2017 | 3 | 01:07 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |