Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Couturier on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Schmaltz wins 42.2% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 47.0% vs Couturier 53.2% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 91.2%
Defensive zone
Couturier 61.7%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 68.6%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Schmaltz
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Schmaltz
Couturier
Last 8: Schmaltz 2-6 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Couturier
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
5
Schmaltz
Couturier
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (654)
53.4% (758)
-7.1%
Power Play
47.3% (110)
62.9% (70)
-15.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
50.7% (227)
-0.7%
On power play, Couturier has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Schmaltz is 42.2% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Schmaltz shoots right. Couturier is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (374).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Couturier
Home
45.6% (397)
50.7% (517)
Away
47.6% (391)
56.1% (538)
By Period
Schmaltz
Couturier
P1
40.9%
55.2%
P2
47.8%
53.0%
P3
51.6%
53.3%
OT
0.0%
42.4%
Final 5 min
40.6%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
50.0%▲
45.5%
46.6%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 06:24 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 17:58 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 11:53 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 13:03 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 14:54 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 02:25 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 03:09 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |