Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Schmaltz wins 41.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Monahan 52.8% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 84.2%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 50.4%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 65.0%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 66.1%
66.1%
33.9%
Schmaltz
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Schmaltz
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
0
Schmaltz
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Schmaltz
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Schmaltz
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (665)
53.2% (823)
-7.3%
Power Play
46.8% (111)
55.3% (159)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
48.4% (95)
+1.6%
On power play, Monahan has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Schmaltz shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Monahan
Home
44.7% (409)
54.6% (529)
Away
47.6% (391)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Schmaltz
Monahan
P1
40.3%
49.0%
P2
47.6%
55.4%
P3
51.0%
53.6%
OT
0.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
40.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 18:57 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 05:12 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 18:31 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 01:40 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |