Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.4% vs 51.7%). Look for Backstrom on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backstrom 51.3% vs Hertl 51.4% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backstrom 54.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 63.6%
Neutral zone
Backstrom 51.9%
Result
Nicklas Backstrom favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Backstrom
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Backstrom
Hertl
Last 8: Backstrom 5-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backstrom
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backstrom
1
0
Backstrom
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backstrom
3
2
Backstrom
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backstrom
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (1,108)
50.4% (367)
+2.1%
Power Play
52.4% (164)
64.6% (48)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
27.9% (61)
49.2% (59)
-21.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backstrom is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (828).
Backstrom shoots left. Hertl is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
Backstrom
Hertl
Home
52.5% (642)
50.9% (220)
Away
50.4% (691)
52.4% (254)
By Period
Backstrom
Hertl
P1
50.2%
52.7%
P2
51.4%
52.8%
P3
53.0%
49.7%
OT
41.2%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
51.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2017 | 2 | 18:04 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 2 | 12:43 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Mar 9, 2017 | 1 | 08:43 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 3 | 10:29 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 3 | 10:20 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 3 | 03:53 | Defensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 1 | 14:01 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |