Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backstrom 46.9% vs Hertl 52.3% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backstrom 76.5%
Defensive zone
Backstrom 55.9%
Neutral zone
Backstrom 62.5%
Result
Nicklas Backstrom favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
Backstrom
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Backstrom
Hertl
Last 6: Backstrom 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backstrom
1
0
Backstrom
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Backstrom
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Backstrom
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backstrom
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (541)
51.6% (1,084)
-4.6%
Power Play
47.4% (95)
61.0% (246)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
15.4% (13)
44.1% (136)
-28.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +28.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backstrom is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Backstrom shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Backstrom
Hertl
Home
48.5% (328)
55.2% (696)
Away
44.2% (321)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Backstrom
Hertl
P1
44.8%
55.4%
P2
42.9%
54.8%
P3
50.9%
48.9%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.1%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
46.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 09:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:11 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 03:58 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 13:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 13:49 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 00:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |