Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backstrom 51.1% vs Hertl 56.8% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backstrom 55.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 54.9%
Neutral zone
Backstrom 61.7%
Result
Nicklas Backstrom favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Backstrom
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Backstrom
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Backstrom
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Backstrom
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backstrom
1
0
Backstrom
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backstrom
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (77)
57.0% (718)
-3.8%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
64.9% (188)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
44.2% (77)
-44.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +44.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backstrom is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (61).
Backstrom shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Backstrom
Hertl
Home
54.5% (55)
59.2% (463)
Away
48.3% (29)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Backstrom
Hertl
P1
50.0%
56.3%
P2
52.9%
55.4%
P3
55.0%
60.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
52.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2023 | 3 | 04:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 3 | 04:10 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 1 | 16:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |