Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Wheeler on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wheeler 50.9% vs Sturm 55.2% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wheeler 57.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 91.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 67.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Wheeler
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Wheeler
Sturm
Last 9: Wheeler 7-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wheeler
4
0
Wheeler
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Wheeler
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wheeler
3
0
Wheeler
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wheeler
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (104)
56.1% (716)
-2.3%
Power Play
43.8% (16)
67.7% (31)
-23.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
51.1% (133)
-17.8%
On power play, Sturm has a +23.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Wheeler is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (102).
Wheeler shoots right. Sturm is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Wheeler
Sturm
Home
53.8% (65)
55.6% (412)
Away
49.2% (61)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Wheeler
Sturm
P1
46.2%
59.6%
P2
56.5%
52.0%
P3
51.2%
55.5%
Final 5 min
61.3%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wheeler
60.0%▲
53.0%
51.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 11:02 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 15:47 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 15:31 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 15:18 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 14:42 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 01:29 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 01:32 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |