Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Howden wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 51.1% vs Sturm 55.2% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 68.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 91.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 73.8%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 80.7%
19.3%
80.7%
Howden
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Howden
Sturm
Last 6: Howden 5-1 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Howden
2
0
Howden
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
2
1
Howden
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Howden
1
0
Howden
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (214)
56.1% (716)
-2.8%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
67.7% (31)
-34.4%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (10)
51.1% (133)
-31.1%
On power play, Sturm has a +34.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Howden is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (139).
Howden shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Howden
Sturm
Home
55.2% (96)
55.6% (412)
Away
48.9% (131)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Howden
Sturm
P1
42.0%
59.6%
P2
55.8%
52.0%
P3
55.6%
55.5%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
51.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 13:57 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 16:48 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 14:15 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 06:09 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2 | 18:06 | Defensive | Brett Howden |