Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Howden wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 46.1% vs Sturm 59.0% (-15.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 70.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 81.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 68.3%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 72.5%
27.5%
72.5%
Howden
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Howden
Sturm
Last 5: Howden 3-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Howden
2
1
Howden
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Howden
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Howden
1
0
Howden
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (330)
60.6% (708)
-13.3%
Power Play
22.2% (9)
61.1% (18)
-38.9%
Penalty Kill
25.9% (27)
56.4% (101)
-30.5%
On power play, Sturm has a +38.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Howden is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Howden shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Howden
Sturm
Home
44.3% (176)
61.6% (451)
Away
45.8% (190)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Howden
Sturm
P1
43.1%
55.9%
P2
43.1%
58.9%
P3
48.1%
64.6%
OT
100.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
45.6%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 14:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 19:22 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 18:52 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | Brett Howden |