Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Sturm 59.0% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 70.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 55.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 62.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Pavelski
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Pavelski
Sturm
Last 5: Pavelski 1-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Pavelski
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
60.6% (708)
-9.1%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
61.1% (18)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
56.4% (101)
-27.8%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Sturm
Home
53.1% (339)
61.6% (451)
Away
49.2% (356)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Pavelski
Sturm
P1
53.8%
55.9%
P2
47.8%
58.9%
P3
50.2%
64.6%
OT
71.4%
70.6%
Final 5 min
48.6%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 10:23 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 03:22 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 17:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |