Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Toews wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.2% vs Sturm 53.6% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 55.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 92.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 80.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 76.2%
23.8%
76.2%
Toews
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Toews
Sturm
Last 10: Toews 3-7 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
2
Toews
Sturm
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
6
Toews
Sturm
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
62.4% (692)
54.6% (271)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
54.4% (90)
-7.5%
On even strength, Toews has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Toews is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Toews shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Toews
Sturm
Home
60.9% (435)
53.0% (168)
Away
61.8% (424)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Toews
Sturm
P1
60.2%
58.2%
P2
65.7%
53.2%
P3
58.2%
52.3%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▬
61.5%
61.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 17:12 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 07:30 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 01:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 13:15 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 08:01 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:54 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:08 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 13:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:41 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:02 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:16 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |