Jonathan Toews vs Nico Sturm

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Jonathan Toews holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Toews wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Toews 60.2% vs Sturm 53.6% (+6.8%)
H2H factor Sturm leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone Sturm 55.8%
Defensive zone Sturm 92.0%
Neutral zone Sturm 80.0%
Result Nico Sturm favored at 76.2%
23.8%
76.2%
Toews Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4 - 9 (13 meetings)
4
9
Toews Sturm
Last 10: Toews 3-7 Sturm

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
2
Toews Sturm
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
6
Toews Sturm
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Toews Sturm
2 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Toews
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
62.4% (692)
54.6% (271)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
54.4% (90)
-7.5%
On even strength, Toews has a +7.8% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Toews is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Toews shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Toews
Sturm
Home
60.9% (435)
53.0% (168)
Away
61.8% (424)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Toews
Sturm
P1
60.2%
58.2%
P2
65.7%
53.2%
P3
58.2%
52.3%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
55.7%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%
61.5%
61.4%
Sturm
52.0%
57.5%
54.6%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 15, 2026 2 17:12 Neutral Nico Sturm
Jan 15, 2026 2 07:30 Defensive Nico Sturm
Jan 15, 2026 2 02:17 Offensive Nico Sturm
Jan 15, 2026 2 01:51 Defensive Nico Sturm
Jan 15, 2026 1 13:15 Offensive Jonathan Toews
Jan 15, 2026 1 12:43 Defensive Nico Sturm
Dec 27, 2025 3 08:01 Defensive Nico Sturm
Dec 27, 2025 2 19:54 Offensive Jonathan Toews
Dec 27, 2025 2 19:08 Neutral Jonathan Toews
Dec 27, 2025 2 13:31 Defensive Nico Sturm
Nov 23, 2025 3 06:41 Defensive Nico Sturm
Nov 23, 2025 2 11:02 Offensive Jonathan Toews
Nov 23, 2025 1 13:16 Offensive Nico Sturm