Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Toews wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Sturm 56.1% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 68.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 85.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 66.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 61.1%
38.9%
61.1%
Toews
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Toews
Sturm
Last 10: Toews 3-7 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
5
3
Toews
Sturm
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
7
Toews
Sturm
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Toews
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,047)
57.1% (2,719)
+0.1%
Power Play
63.3% (3,252)
61.3% (62)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
51.0% (498)
+2.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Toews is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (11,653).
Toews shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Toews
Sturm
Home
59.7% (9,192)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
56.1% (8,948)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Toews
Sturm
P1
58.6%
56.5%
P2
57.8%
54.9%
P3
57.3%
57.4%
OT
58.9%
60.6%
Final 5 min
58.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 17:12 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 07:30 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 01:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 13:15 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 08:01 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:54 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:08 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 13:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:41 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:02 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:16 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 05:00 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 06:54 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 16:26 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 13:11 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |