Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.3% vs Sturm 59.0% (-12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 52.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 77.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 73.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Dowd
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Dowd
Sturm
Last 5: Dowd 0-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
4
Dowd
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Dowd
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (778)
60.6% (708)
-11.4%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
61.1% (18)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (234)
56.4% (101)
-12.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Dowd shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Dowd
Sturm
Home
46.3% (492)
61.6% (451)
Away
49.8% (532)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Dowd
Sturm
P1
49.1%
55.9%
P2
48.2%
58.9%
P3
46.9%
64.6%
OT
71.4%
70.6%
Final 5 min
45.7%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 06:07 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |