Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +17.0% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Buchnevich 42.1% (+17.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 64.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 92.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 75.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
Sturm
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Sturm
Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Buchnevich
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
37.7% (154)
+16.9%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
30.0% (10)
+24.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +24.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Sturm shoots left. Buchnevich is 34.6% vs left-shot opponents (107).
Home / Away
Sturm
Buchnevich
Home
53.0% (168)
37.4% (91)
Away
56.0% (193)
37.9% (87)
By Period
Sturm
Buchnevich
P1
58.2%
38.9%
P2
53.2%
31.5%
P3
52.3%
42.0%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 18:05 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |