Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +22.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Buchnevich 35.4% (+22.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 87.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 66.8%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 58.2%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Sturm
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Sturm
Buchnevich
Last 8: Sturm 3-5 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
2
Sturm
Buchnevich
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Buchnevich
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
1
2
Sturm
Buchnevich
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
33.7% (895)
+23.4%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
44.2% (52)
+17.1%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
24.3% (37)
+26.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Buchnevich is 32.8% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Home / Away
Sturm
Buchnevich
Home
57.1% (1,614)
34.7% (490)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
33.2% (494)
By Period
Sturm
Buchnevich
P1
56.5%
34.4%
P2
54.9%
33.7%
P3
57.4%
33.4%
OT
60.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
37.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
33.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 18:05 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 17:05 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:59 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:13 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 19:35 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 08:15 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 16:32 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |