Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Hertl 57.2% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 85.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 85.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 85.6%
14.4%
85.6%
Sturm
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Sturm
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
58.1% (823)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
62.9% (35)
-8.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Sturm shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Sturm
Hertl
Home
53.0% (168)
59.7% (561)
Away
56.0% (193)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Sturm
Hertl
P1
58.2%
51.6%
P2
53.2%
63.8%
P3
52.3%
58.6%
OT
100.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
55.7%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 17:32 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |