Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Hertl 56.8% (+2.6%)
Offensive zone
Hertl 65.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 71.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Sturm
Hertl
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
57.0% (718)
+3.6%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
64.9% (188)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
44.2% (77)
+12.2%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Sturm shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Sturm
Hertl
Home
61.6% (451)
59.2% (463)
Away
58.2% (376)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Sturm
Hertl
P1
55.9%
56.3%
P2
58.9%
55.4%
P3
64.6%
60.5%
OT
70.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%