Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Hertl 54.2% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 79.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 78.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 50.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Sturm
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
10
(21 meetings)
11
10
Sturm
Hertl
Last 10: Sturm 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
6
Sturm
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
7
2
Sturm
Hertl
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Sturm
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
53.8% (8,268)
+3.3%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
59.3% (1,975)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
46.3% (806)
+4.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Sturm
Hertl
Home
57.1% (1,614)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Sturm
Hertl
P1
56.5%
53.6%
P2
54.9%
54.1%
P3
57.4%
55.3%
OT
60.6%
46.5%
Final 5 min
56.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 17:32 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 19:28 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 16:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 16:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 12:17 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 05:59 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 03:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 15:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 10:12 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 12:16 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 12:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 3 | 12:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |