Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 50.9% vs Hertl 54.7% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 60.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 68.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 69.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Sturm
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Sturm
Hertl
Last 7: Sturm 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Sturm
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (126)
55.7% (648)
-4.9%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
60.4% (149)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (6)
42.2% (83)
+24.5%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +24.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sturm is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Sturm shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Home / Away
Sturm
Hertl
Home
54.1% (74)
58.3% (391)
Away
48.3% (60)
52.8% (489)
By Period
Sturm
Hertl
P1
48.1%
58.9%
P2
62.0%
51.5%
P3
40.0%
54.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
51.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 15:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 2 | 10:12 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 12:16 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 12:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 3 | 12:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 1 | 05:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |