Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +16.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Ostlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Ostlund 36.5% (+16.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 57.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 91.6%
Neutral zone
Roy 74.9%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 77.7%
77.7%
22.3%
Roy
Ostlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Roy
Ostlund
Last 6: Roy 4-2 Ostlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ostlund
0
1
Roy
Ostlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
4
1
Roy
Ostlund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Ostlund
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
32.5% (283)
+16.2%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
11.1% (9)
+38.4%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
33.3% (3)
+12.2%
On power play, Roy has a +38.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostlund shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. Ostlund is 34.8% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Home / Away
Roy
Ostlund
Home
49.5% (2,221)
37.0% (154)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
26.2% (141)
By Period
Roy
Ostlund
P1
50.8%
34.6%
P2
46.3%
32.0%
P3
48.1%
28.6%
Final 5 min
47.2%
23.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Ostlund
46.0%▲
34.5%
31.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | Noah Ostlund |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 07:44 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 04:09 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Noah Ostlund |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 07:27 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 07:20 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |