Scouting Report
Oskar Bäck holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Bäck shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.9% vs Bäck 51.3% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 56.0%
Defensive zone
Bäck 50.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 53.6%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Roy
Bäck
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Roy
Bäck
Last 6: Roy 3-3 Bäck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Bäck
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bäck
1
2
Roy
Bäck
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Bäck
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (679)
55.9% (143)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (49)
33.3% (30)
+1.4%
On even strength, Bäck has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bäck shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Roy shoots right. Bäck is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (80).
Home / Away
Roy
Bäck
Home
49.3% (345)
47.6% (82)
Away
46.4% (433)
56.0% (91)
By Period
Roy
Bäck
P1
47.6%
54.3%
P2
47.1%
48.1%
P3
47.9%
56.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Bäck
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 07:42 | Offensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 05:19 | Neutral | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 17:54 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:08 | Neutral | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 01:09 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |