Scouting Report
Oskar Bäck holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Bäck shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Bäck 50.5% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 53.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 52.2%
Neutral zone
Roy 53.2%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Roy
Bäck
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Roy
Bäck
Last 6: Roy 3-3 Bäck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Bäck
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bäck
1
2
Roy
Bäck
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Bäck
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
54.8% (186)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
31.7% (41)
+13.8%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bäck shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. Bäck is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (107).
Home / Away
Roy
Bäck
Home
49.5% (2,221)
52.4% (103)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
49.2% (124)
By Period
Roy
Bäck
P1
50.8%
51.5%
P2
46.3%
50.0%
P3
48.1%
50.8%
Final 5 min
47.2%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Bäck
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 07:42 | Offensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 05:19 | Neutral | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 17:54 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:08 | Neutral | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 01:09 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |