Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Cates 45.5% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 53.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 92.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 75.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 82.7%
82.7%
17.3%
Backlund
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Backlund
Cates
Last 10: Backlund 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Backlund
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
5
1
Backlund
Cates
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
45.4% (712)
+4.7%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
42.2% (102)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
44.7% (47)
+3.1%
On power play, Backlund has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Backlund shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Backlund
Cates
Home
48.1% (580)
46.3% (423)
Away
51.1% (653)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Backlund
Cates
P1
45.1%
46.3%
P2
54.7%
47.1%
P3
49.0%
42.1%
OT
46.2%
18.2%
Final 5 min
47.2%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 17:24 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 14:19 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 10:52 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 17:13 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 08:43 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 09:57 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 09:49 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |