Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +19.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Cates wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Johansen 58.2% (-19.7%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 72.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 84.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 88.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 83.5%
83.5%
16.5%
Cates
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Cates
Johansen
Last 10: Cates 1-9 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
3
Cates
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Cates
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
5
Cates
Johansen
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
59.8% (625)
-19.4%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
58.2% (196)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
51.9% (27)
-19.2%
On even strength, Johansen has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Cates is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Cates shoots left. Johansen is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Cates
Johansen
Home
38.2% (566)
60.3% (436)
Away
41.0% (488)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Cates
Johansen
P1
40.5%
61.3%
P2
42.4%
60.4%
P3
35.3%
56.0%
OT
42.9%
56.3%
Final 5 min
36.8%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 17:42 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 13:46 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 09:21 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 05:55 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 03:13 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |