Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Hertl 57.2% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 73.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 86.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 93.4%
6.6%
93.4%
Cates
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Cates
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
0
Cates
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (712)
58.1% (823)
-12.7%
Power Play
42.2% (102)
56.2% (265)
-14.0%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
62.9% (35)
-18.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Cates shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Cates
Hertl
Home
46.3% (423)
59.7% (561)
Away
43.6% (438)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Cates
Hertl
P1
46.3%
51.6%
P2
47.1%
63.8%
P3
42.1%
58.6%
OT
18.2%
28.6%
Final 5 min
44.0%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 03:25 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2025 | OT | 01:14 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Noah Cates |