Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.8% vs Hertl 56.8% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 54.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 50.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Cates
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Cates
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Cates
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (271)
57.0% (718)
-12.7%
Power Play
77.8% (18)
64.9% (188)
+12.9%
Penalty Kill
31.7% (41)
44.2% (77)
-12.5%
On power play, Cates has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Cates shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Cates
Hertl
Home
52.0% (148)
59.2% (463)
Away
38.5% (182)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Cates
Hertl
P1
42.7%
56.3%
P2
42.9%
55.4%
P3
48.5%
60.5%
Final 5 min
44.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:33 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 11:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:24 | Neutral | Noah Cates |