Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 40.4% vs Hertl 54.5% (-15.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 72.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 57.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Cates
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Cates
Hertl
Last 7: Cates 3-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Cates
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
0
Cates
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Cates
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (841)
54.1% (1,117)
-13.7%
Power Play
42.4% (66)
59.8% (296)
-17.4%
Penalty Kill
32.7% (147)
34.4% (32)
-1.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Cates shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Cates
Hertl
Home
38.2% (566)
54.3% (709)
Away
41.0% (488)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Cates
Hertl
P1
40.5%
51.6%
P2
42.4%
53.6%
P3
35.3%
58.6%
OT
42.9%
45.5%
Final 5 min
36.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 18:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 10:48 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 07:48 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 16:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 02:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 02:36 | Offensive | Noah Cates |